GTA IV is being widely praised as the best game of the year if not the century or the millennium or the last trillion years, but it doesn’t really change the fact that GTA IV is basically GTA III with better graphics, a more complex cinematic story and a lot of gimmicks and minigames. Which of course raises the question, where can GTA V go from here?

It’s not a complete urgent question. After the DLC content is rolled out, Rockstar will probably move on to GTA IV Vice City or/and GTA IV San Andreas. But sooner or later the problem will come up again. And it’s a double edged problem. On the one hand the GTA series is innovative enough that it breeds imitators. On the other hand the gameplay basically remains the same across the GTA 3 games and GTA 4, and the gameplay just isn’t all that good, once you subtract all the added elements and the sandbox itself.

Both edges of the problem contributed to developing GTA 4. GTA 3’s success helped spawn any number of mob games, from Mafia to the Godfather game launch. So by San Andreas, Rockstar moved on from the mob centered story in GTA 3 and Vice City, to a more urban gangsta story in San Andreas. But then you had Saints Row and 25 to Life. When Rockstar rolled out GTA IV starring Nico Bellic, an Eastern European immigrant with an odd accent, they thought that finally they had a premise that nobody was going to imitate too quickly.

But the second edge of the problem is that GTA 4 isn’t really a better game than GTA 3, it’s just shinier, more cinematic, has better graphics and a lot of minigames, social elements, tv shows, internet, more developed radio stations and integration with the whole Rockstar Social Club setup. And the insecurity behind that for Rockstar is clear, if they can’t genuinely improve GTA 3’s gameplay, they can distract you from it. Hey look, there’s an arcade game, and a cell phone, and entire scripted TV shows you can watch. But like a skyscraper when you look at it the right way, what you see is a developer trying to get you not to notice how little the game has really changed.

But if not enough players have noticed that yet, by GTA 5 the problem will be much more acute. And how many more minigames, distractions and gimmicks will Rockstar have to shove in, to distract players from the fact that they’re basically playing the same game they were playing 3 years ago, and that GTA V is basically GTA IV as GTA IV was GTA III.